Forecasters’ moderate outlook

Look for slower growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 before it picks up again in 2014, say private-sector forecasters.

The federal Department of Finance regularly surveys bank economists, academics and research organizations for their views on the Canadian economy. The average of those forecasts forms the basis of the federal government’s economic assumptions for fiscal planning. The past October, Finance once again took the pulse of the Canadian economy,

Here are some of the average forecasts for the next three years:

                                                              2012      2013      2014

Real GDP growth (%)                             2.1         2.0         2.5

Three-month Treasury bill rate (%)        1.0         1.2          1.8

10-year government bond rate (%)         1.9         2.2          2.9

Exchange rate (US¢)                             100.2     101.1     100.1

Unemployment rate (%)                          7.3         7.2          6.8

Consumer price index inflation (%)        1.7         2.0          2.0

For more forecasts and to see how the October forecasts compare to the March/Budget 2012 survey, click here.