Demography Matters In Strategic Planning

Part of the Bank of Canada’s Spring Review, released on May 16, included an article titled “Explaining Canada’s Regional Migration Patterns”, which provides interesting data on the effect of demographic migration on economic policies in Canada. It also provides, therefore, important information for professional advisors who wish to more strategically define growth in their practices over the long run.

Differences in employment rates and mean incomes help to explain migratory patterns within the country. Following the economic depression in 2008, many Canadians packed their bags and went looking for greater opportunities elsewhere. Most migration happened intraprovincially, with distance and language barriers helping to explain that trend.

But those factors cannot explain fully why provincial borders are negatively related to migration flows. One troubling aspect of the study is that Canadians remain apprehensive about migrating across provinces, notwithstanding the 1995 Agreement on Internal Trade and other such agreements that promised to remove many of the inhibiting factors from such ventures; this may continue to have a negative effect on Canada’s domestic economy and is an area that our politicians should focus on when creating policies for the future.

The study reveals that regions that benefit from high commodity prices experienced a large amount of in-migration between the years 2001 to 2006. These numbers are believed to flow directly as a result of the strong Canadian dollar during that period; the loonie appreciated by 40% in this short time frame.

The article cites the City of Wood Buffalo Cold-Lake Alberta, the “epicenter of the Canadian oil-sands mining sector”, as an area significantly affected by migration. Nearly a third of the town’s population has moved there in the last five years.

In fact, of the 73 economic regions that were devised for this national study, all eight regions in Alberta showed high inward migration and all are among the top 25 regions in that category across the board.

Debt and Demographics – The Wild Cards will be discussed at the Distinguished Advisor Conference (DAC) by Knowledge Bureau faculty member Robert Ironside. Early registration will bring savings if you reserve by June 30.