Recently released economic data suggest Canada is feeling the impact of the global financial turmoil with disappointing growth in gross domestic product (GDP), a widening trade deficit, shrinking employment and a cooling housing market. But in all those numbers, there may well be a silver lining.
Consider Canada's trade deficit, for example. According to Statistics Canada, Canada's merchandise trade deficit widened to $1.8 billon in June from $954 million in May, the third consecutive monthly deficit. A slight increase in exports ó 0.2% to $39.1 billion ó was offset by a healthy 2.3% increase in imports, to $40.9 billion. The only sector making gains on the export side of the ledger was automotive products, up 13.9% to $6.3 billion in June as volumes increased 13.2%.
So, where's the good news? Economists say import levels are indicative of the ongoing resilience of all-important domestic demand. As CIBC economist Peter Buchanan wrote in an Aug. 10 Economic Flash: "While [export levels] suggests weaker growth abroad is taking a toll on Canada's economic performance, the recent momentum of imports is a hopeful sign that domestic spending is still showing some signs of life.î
Economists also like the 3.2% increase in imports of machinery and equipment ó to a record high of $11.2 billion. The optimists hope these numbers reflect increasing business investment that could improve Canada's competitiveness and pay dividends down the road.
Wrote TD Bank economist Francis Fong in a Aug. 9 report: "Imports of machinery and equipment have now surpassed their prerecession peak and are at their highest level on record ó a sign that businesses in Canada are making good use of their superior financial position.î
As the C.D. Howe Institute argues, business investment is a key driver of economic growth. In a report entitled From Living Well to Working Well: Raising Canada's performance in non-residential investment, authors Benjamin Dachis and William Robson compared gross non-residential capital spending per worker in Canada to the average among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries and the United States. In the early 2000s, they say, Canada lagged. From 2001 to 2005, for every $1 per worker invested across OECD countries, Canada invested 94¢; for every $1 per U.S. worker, Canada invested 79¢.
"Since then, Canada's performance has improved,î report the authors. "From 2006 to 2010, our businesses invested 99¢ per worker for every $1 invested across the OECD, and 88¢ for each $1 invested by U.S. businesses. Preliminary 2011 data show Canadian businesses investing more per worker than the OECD average ó 102¢ per $1 across the group ó and maintaining the late 2000s average of 88¢ per $1 invested in the U.S.î
Perhaps the most disheartening news has been the 30,000 jobs lost in July following mediocre gains in May and June, with unemployment rate rising 0.1 percentage points to 7.3%. Year over year, said StatsCan, employment increased a mere 0.8% or 139,000 jobs.
There is a silver lining, however, as the composition of jobs shifted from part-time to more lucrative full-time positions. While Canada lost 51,600 part-time positions in July, it gained 21,300 full-time jobs. "That continues a trend that has seen Canada add 30,000 new jobs per month on average over the past six months,î wrote TD Bank economist Leslie Preston recently, "but lose an average of 8,000 part-time jobs.î
Another bright spot was the 3.9% year-over-year gain in the average hourly wage rate for permanent work. "Wage growth has outpaced inflation for four months now,î said Preston, "a welcome development after lagging through much of last year.î
On the housing front, StatsCan tells us the total value of building permits fell 2.5% to $6.8 billion in June, following a 7.1% increase in May. But the non-residential sector was behind the downturn, with contractors taking out $2.5 billion in permits, a decrease of 12.3%. In the residential sector, the value of permits rose 4.2% to $4.4 billion in June, a second, consecutive monthly increase.
New home starts did slip to 208,500 units in July, from 222,100 units in June. But, as TD Economics reported, "Housing starts have seen some big swings over the past five months, but remain quite healthy nonetheless. Indeed, the three-month moving average is sitting at 216,200 units." The biggest area of concern is the "volatile multiples segment.î
As for GDP, economists rue its lack of momentum. It edged up a mere 0.1% in May, after a slight 0.3% increase in April. According to StatsCan, the output of service industries rose 0.1% in May on the strength of retail trade and the finance and insurance sector. Goods production was unchanged in May as the increase in mining and oil and gas extraction was offset by declines in manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, construction.
But it is still on the positive side and, for many countries, growth, no matter how small, still looks good. Bank of Montreal economist Mike Gregory noted in the Aug. 10 Focus, that Canada has become a safe haven. "Foreign investors,î he wrote, "purchased a record $24 billion (net) of Canadian fixed-income securities in May. There was strong demand for both bonds ó at $16.7 billion, the third highest on record ó and money market instruments ó at $7.3 billion, the second highest on record. In recent years, Canada has been perceived as a prime destination for fixed-income portfolio diversification. However, Mayís results symbolically marked the emergence of Canada as a destination for safe-haven flows as well.î
Additional Resources: Master Your Retirement, Financial Recovery in a Fragile World