September 5 Meeting of G20 Finance Ministers:
But Canada Still in Good Shape for 2010 Recovery
By Evelyn Jacks, President, Knowledge Bureau
The meeting of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors took place on Saturday, September 5 in London, England. Their deliberations resulted in further steps to strengthen the world's financial system, in the context of recovery from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
See Recommendations For Robust Global Regulation And Oversight
However, the significance of the meeting may extend beyond the establishment of rules for banking, lending, regulation, taxation and executive compensation in the G20 countries. It represents a continued exercise in world governance and co-operation, which at a macro level is ground-breaking and very interesting.
See World Bank Statistics on Global Economic Recovery
These continued efforts and focus of a new guard--a global team of chief stewards, working together within relatively new territoryóare impacting Canadians, as they contemplate their financial future, and potentially another election this fall. The G20 countries represent 85% of the world's economy, and their success in overcoming the financial crisis is critical to investors, business owners and employees everywhere.
This weekend's meetings are also significant ahead of the next G20 meeting, The Pittsburg Summit, which occurs September 24th through the 25th, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. At that event, US President Obama will meet with leaders representing 85 percent of the world's economy, review progress made in prior meetings, and discuss further required actions towards sustainable recovery from the global economic and financial crisis.
So what does it all mean to advisors and their clients back home? While the International Monetary Fund, (IMF) in its April 2009 publication World Economic Outlook has stated that it expects Canada to experience the smallest contraction of all G7 countries in 2009 and the strongest recovery going into 2010, the reality is that as a trading economy, our recovery "is highly dependent on a sustained recovery in the global economy, in particular in the United States. The global economic recovery, in turn, cannot fully materialize until dislocations in global financial markets are fully resolved and these markets are fully functioning.î[1]
See Canadian Fundamentals Are Strong, Yet Dependent on Others, Next Time: September 15th .
Therefore, the outcomes of the London meeting of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and the implementation of these leader's ongoing recommendations within Canada, in the context of its position of strength and dependence on the success of its global trading partners, will need to be well understood by any future federal government.
Investors, business owners and employees who are attempting to make decisions with their tax and financial advisors, will find the ongoing outcomes of these meetings insightful and potentially useful in envisioning their own opportunities for financial security.
Knowledge Bureau will report on and analyze the details of the global economy and its recovery, the effects of new regulation and taxation, as well the risks and opportunities from a potential fall election on the Real Wealth Managementô of income and assets, together with 15 leading speakers and Canada's top advisors in the financial services, at its Distinguished Advisor Conference in Tucson, Arizona, November 8 to 11. Delegates may register by calling 1-866-953-4769.
The London meetings build on the Lecce Framework for Common Principles And Standards For Propriety, Integrity And Transparency developed by the G8 Finance Ministers in Lecce, Italy on June 13, highlighted in our first Special Report on Fixing the Financial Crisis.
Evelyn Jacks is President of The Knowledge Bureau and author of over 40 books on the subject of personal taxation, finance and Real Wealth Managementô. She has recently been appointed by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to the Task Force on Financial Literacy.
[1] Canada's Economic Action Plan A Second Report To Canadians June 2009, Department of Finance, Canada
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ROBUST GLOBAL REGULATION AND OVERSIGHT
By Evelyn Jacks, President, The Knowledge Bureau
The G20 Finance Ministers agreed over the weekend that more needs to be done to regulate and oversee the financial services including prior commitments to strength and stability, propriety, integrity and stability and the following:
Expansion of the mandate and membership of The Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information;
More stringent capital requirements for risky trading activities, off-balance sheet items, and securitized products by financial regulators;
Proposals to address operating principles regarding compensation and deposit insurance;
The establishment of over thirty supervisory colleges.
Now, six further actions were recommended:
1. The oversight of Corporate Remuneration and Accountability of Compensation Committees at Board Levels. Delivery of a framework on corporate governance and compensation practices, including greater disclosure and transparency of the level and structure of remuneration for those whose actions have a material impact on risk taking; global standards on pay structure, including on deferral, effective clawback, the relationship between fixed and variable remuneration, and guaranteed bonuses, as well as corporate governance reforms to ensure appropriate board oversight of compensation and risk, including greater independence and accountability of board compensation committees.
"We call on the FSB to report to the Pittsburgh Summit with detailed specific proposals for developing this framework, which could be incorporated into supervisory measures, and closely monitoring its delivery. We also ask the FSB to explore possible approaches for limiting total variable remuneration in relation to risk and long-term performance. G20 governments will also explore ways to address non-adherence with the FSB principles.î
2. Stronger regulation and oversight for systemically important firms.
3. Stronger prudential regulation by, among other things, requiring banks to hold more and better quality capital once recovery is assured.
"We call on banks to retain a greater proportion of current profits to build capital, where needed, to support lending.î
4. Tackling non-cooperative jurisdictions (NCJs): particularly those that fail to meet regulatory standards, and tax information exchange standards. The Ministers pledged to use countermeasures against tax havens starting in March 2010, possibly through a multilateral instrument.
5. Implementation of international standards, to prevent new risks, particularly with regard to credit derivatives, oversight of credit ratings agencies and hedge funds.
6. Convergence towards a single set of high-quality, global, independent accounting standards on financial instruments, loan-loss provisioning, off-balance sheet exposures and the impairment and valuation of financial assets.
WORLD BANK STATISTICS ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY ONLY CAUTIOUS
The World Bank predicts that while high income countries will return to positive growth in 2010, these economies will remain depressed well into 2011 and it is only after this that unemployment rates will decline. The "output gapî, the difference between the productive capacity of an economy and the actual level of demand, will likely have reached some 6 percent of GDP by then. See table that follows:
The global outlook in summary, 2007-2011
Percent change from previous year, except interest rates and oil price
2007
2008e
2009f
2010f
2011f
Global Conditions
World Trade Volume
7.5
3.7
-9.7
3.8
6.9
Consumer Prices
G-7 Countries a,b
1.7
2.9
0.5
0.8
1.3
United States
2.6
3.8
0.3
1.2
2.0
Commodity Prices (USD terms)
Non-oil commodities
17.1
21.0
-30.1
-2.1
1.4
Oil Price (US$ per barrel) c
71.1
97.0
55.5
63.0
65.8
Oil price (percent change)
10.6
36.4
-42.7
13.4
4.6
Manufactures unit export value d
5.5
7.5
1.9
1.0
0.0
Interest Rates
$, 6-month (percent)
5.2
3.2
1.5
1.7
2.0
€, 6-month (percent)
4.3
4.8
2.0
2.2
2.3
Real GDP growth e
World
3.8
1.9
-2.9
2.0
3.2
Memo item: World (PPP weights) f
5.0
3.0
-1.7
2.8
4.0
High income
2.6
0.7
-4.2
1.3
2.4
OECD Countries
2.5
0.6
-4.2
1.2
2.3
Euro Area
2.7
0.6
-4.5
0.5
1.9
Japan
2.3
-0.7
-6.8
1.0
2.0
United States
2.0
1.1
-3.0
1.8
2.5
Non-OECD countries
5.6
2.4
-4.8
2.2
4.6
Developing countries
8.1
5.9
1.2
4.4
5.7
East Asia and Pacific
11.4
8.0
5.0
6.6
7.8
China*
13.0
9.0
6.5
7.5
8.5
Indonesia
6.3
6.1
3.5
5.0
6.0
Thailand
4.9
2.7
-3.2
2.2
3.1
Europe and Central Asia
6.9
4.0
-4.7
1.6
3.3
Russia
8.1
5.6
-7.5
2.5
3.0
Turkey
4.7
1.1
-5.5
1.5
3.0
Poland
6.7
4.8
0.5
0.9
3.5
Latin America and Caribbean
5.8
4.2
-2.2
2.0
3.3
Brazil
5.7
5.1
-1.1
2.5
4.1
Mexico
3.3
1.4
-5.8
1.7
3.0
Argentina
8.7
6.8
-1.5
1.9
2.1
Middle East and North Africa
5.4
6.0
3.1
3.8
4.6
Egypt g
7.1
7.2
3.8
4.2
5.0
Iran g
6.2
6.9
2.5
3.0
4.0
Algeria
3.0
3.0
2.2
3.5
4.0
South Asia
8.4
6.1
4.6
7.0
7.8
India g
9.0
6.1
5.1
8.0
8.5
Pakistan g
6.4
5.8
1.0
2.5
4.5
Bangladesh g
6.4
6.2
5.0
4.5
5.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
6.2
4.8
1.0
3.7
5.2
South Africa
5.1
3.1
-1.5
2.6
4.1
Nigeria
6.3
5.3
2.9
3.6
5.6
Kenya
7.1
1.7
2.6
3.4
4.9
Memorandum items
Developing countries
excluding transition countries
8.2
5.9
1.9
4.7
5.9
excluding China and India
6.1
4.5
-1.6
2.5
3.9
Source: World Bank.
All forecasts and databases for the Global Development Finance 2009 report were frozen on June 5, 2009.
*The latest country forecast for China (as of June 18, 2009) is available in the China Quarterly Update.
Note: PPP = purchasing power parity; e = estimate; f= forecast.a. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the United States.b. In local currency, aggregated using 2000 GDP Weights.c. Simple average of Dubai, Brent and West Texas Intermediate.d. Unit value index of manufactured exports from major economies, expressed in USD.e. GDP in 2000 constant dollars; 2000 prices and market exchange rates.f. GDP measured at 2000 PPP weights.
g. In keeping with national practice, data for Egypt,
Iran, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are reported on a fiscal year basis. Expressed on a calendar year basis, GDP growth in these countries is as in the table on the right.
2008e
2009f
2010f
2011f
Egypt
6.7
5.1
4.2
4.6
Iran
6.9
2.5
3.0
4.0
India
7.3
5.9
8.1
8.5
Pakistan
6.1
3.3
1.8
3.5
Bangladesh
6.3
5.6
4.7
4.8