Significantly, commission for mutual fund and brokerage services have grown
By Evelyn Jacks, President, The Knowledge Bureau
Exactly how is Canada doing in relation to the global financial recovery? Quite well it appears, according to end of August numbers from Statistics Canada,the end of second quarter reports from Finance Canada and the Department of Finance's September 10th new release. It appears that even investors felt better going into the summer hiatus. Overall, consumer spending on goods and services increased in the second quarter of 2009 and, to the relief of investment advisors, there was a noted increase in spending on mutual funds and on stock and bond commissions, which has contributed to Canada's overall positive growth in services.
Following are details of some of the economic outputs and forecasts on the table for the rest of 2009 and 2010, as a result of those statistics. The message is strong: we're on the road to recovery, but with a caveat: as a trading nation, we need to continue to work with the G20 economies to strengthen our collective position in the global economy; and for us, particularly important is the ability for the US, our largest trading partner, to recover.
THE PRIVATE SECTOR HAD SOME POSITIVES
Canadian corporations earned $50.2 billion in operating profits in the second quarter of 2009, down 6.4% from the previous quarter. But this compared quite favorably against declines of 14.1% in the first quarter of 2009 and 19.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008.[1]
But, what's even more exciting is that Canada's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1% in June. This is the first monthly increase since July 2008. For the second quarter as a whole, real GDP decreased 0.9%, which represents a smaller decline than the 1.6% drop in the previous quarter. Also, final domestic demand increased slightly--0.1%--in the second quarter. [2]
How will all of this affect your clients who want to accumulate, growth, preserve and transition more wealth? There are some challenges, as you will see in next week's report; however, it also takes leadership and an understanding of the decision-making role between advisors and clients.
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CONSUMERS STILL KINGSóBUT FACE THE LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER
How did individuals fare? Well, we relied more heavily on credit, but it wasn't necessarily all ìbadî debt. In the second quarter of 2009, we borrowed to buy consumer goods and invest in mortgages, but while we did that, interest rates were reduced from 7.8% to 7.7% to cushion the blow.
Specifically, consumer credit increased by 19% while net new mortgage borrowings were up in excess of 30%. According to Stats Canada, both figures are well off the pace of borrowing set prior to the economic downturn. Second, the substantial increase in mortgage borrowing was related to increased activity in the resale housing markets, which was vibrant in the context of historically low borrowing costs.
Investment housing has increased 1.7% in the second quarter, and this trend reversed five consecutive quarterly declines. Ownership transfer costs related to housing resale activity rebounded by 40%. While we saw a decline in the value of new housing construction, renovation activity was also up (+2.2%) after weakening throughout most of 2008. It appears the federal government's introduction of the Home Renovation Tax Credit may be having some effect after all.
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And, as stated in The Wealth of Canadians: An Overview of the Survey of Financial Security 2005 by Pensions and Wealth Surveys Section of Statistics Canada, the single most important asset for Canadians is the principal residence, contributing significantly to overall personal net worth. It will be interesting to see how significantly these activities will contribute to personal net worth over the long run.
So while the Canadian housing market remains sound, what's important is that this is fundamentally different to what is happening in the United States. Canada's housing market growth was not created by the aggressive marketing of high-risk, sub-prime mortgage products which led the US growth, price increases and subsequent consumer credit crash. Even though in Canada overall we saw pre-summer declines in housing starts and modest declines in average house prices for resale homes, this happened primarily in Western Canada, where prices had increased sharply, and perhaps unsustainably in recent years.
The result? The net worth of Canadian households has fallen by far less than in the U.S., which will help support consumer activity and therefore our economic recovery going forward. [3]
Further, it appears the consumer credit upswing reflected sizeable increases in car sales, very good for the manufacturing sector which has suffered significantly in the financial crisis. Buyers apparently were enticed by favourable dealer incentives to buy new cars.
Other emerging indicators from the end of second quarter [4] are more disturbing, however.
RED FLAGS FOR SAVERS
Unfortunately, the national saving rate was 4.4%, its lowest rate since 1994. Both personal and corporate saving rose slightly in the second quarter. However, purchasing power declined as the real gross domestic income (GDI), a measure of Canada's purchasing power, fell 0.5% in the second quarter. Real GDI was down 8.2% from the second quarter of 2008. Further, the price of goods and services produced in Canada increased 0.3%, after declines in the two previous quarters.
Therefore, while consumer spending is helping us out of our current fiscal crisis, savings rates need to increase to hedge against anticipated decreases in purchasing power from price increases and potentially increased taxes in the future, needed to cover budget deficits and the costs of serving an aging demographic.
The introduction of the Tax Free Savings Account in January 2009, should go a long way for average Canadians to start making up some of that anticipated shortfall. Therefore it appears that recent federal budget announcements have hit the mark in stimulating the savings rates. So what comes next for Canadian taxpayers?
Next time: THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS AND BUDGETS
Evelyn Jacks is President of The Knowledge Bureau and author of over 40 books on the subject of personal taxation, finance and Real Wealth Managementô. She has recently been appointed by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to the Task Force on Financial Literacy.
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[1] The Daily, Statistics Canada, Quarterly Financial Statistics for Enterprises, August 26, 2009
[2] The Daily, Statistics Canada, Canadian Economic Accounts, August 31, 2009
[3] Canada's Economic Action Plan A Second Report To Canadians June 2009, Department of Finance, Canada
[4] Canadian Economic Accounts, August 31, 2009, Stats Canada